Phil Rose: Every year since 2008, business aviation experts have been predicting the market’s return to pre-recession levels. So far, we haven’t really seen it, although figures suggest that 2015 was a relatively good year. How does Bombardier Business Aircraft see the economic climate for the industry eight years after the markets fell?

Jean-Christophe Gallagher: It’s a complex question. First, we have to acknowledge that the world economy is just not firing on all cylinders, and that’s at the heart of what’s happening in business aviation. Unfortunately, the emerging nations right now are not contributing to the business aviation market at the level that was anticipated. Overall, the market has not recovered to the levels that we saw in 2007–08.

We experienced industry growth of about 5% between 2013 and ’14, but between 2014 and ’15 it was more or less flat. We last saw a peak in 2008, when our segments of the industry delivered more than 800 airplanes. Last year, those same segments delivered about 600 airplanes. Bombardier will be announcing its 2016 market forecast at EBACE. Going forward, I see continued growth, but the recovery is gradual.

PR: Economic conditions around the world vary widely, as do market prospects and the regulatory and operational environments for private and business aviation. Do you continue to see positive signs for growth in countries or regions beyond North America, Europe, China, and Latin America?

JCG: Yes. Last year, close to 80% of new business aircraft deliveries were to North America and Europe. This is a much greater percentage than we’ve seen in recent years, but it’s a short-term dynamic. As you know, the number one factor correlated to business aviation industry performance is worldwide economic growth. As soon as we see key regions exceeding 3% YOY growth, we’ll see business aviation come back strongly.

PR: How does Bombardier propose to maintain and increase market share — other than by “having the best products”? What strengths are you bringing to the table?

Bombardier Learjet 75.
Photo: Bombardier.

JCG: The answer is great products and exceptional customer experience. Our current product portfolio is the widest in the industry. It spans from the Learjet 70/75 (priced at around $10 million) to the Global 7000 (in the $75-million range).

Since 2012, we’ve brought to the marketplace the Vision flight deck version of the Global 5000/6000, the Learjet 70/75, the Challenger 350, and the Challenger 650. In addition, the Global 7000 is now due to enter service in 2H2018.

Bombardier Global 7000.
Photo: Bombardier.

We have a huge installed base of more than 4500 airplanes, which includes over 1600 Challengers of all models, more than 700 Globals, and 2200 Learjets. I’d say 60% of the airplanes we sell today are replacement aircraft for the installed base. Another 20% are additions to the existing fleet. The last 20% would be concept buyers — people who have never owned an airplane before.

Learjet and Challenger interiors are all done in-house by Bombardier. Most Global completions take place here in Montréal. Everything — cabinetry, upholstery, etc — is built and installed right here. We employ an impressive array of craftspeople, and we deliver the best interiors possible. One of Bombardier’s key traits is that we provide a level of interior design quality that’s second to none.

Bombardier Global Completion Center in Dorval.
Photo: PSA Associés.

We’ve invested tremendously in increasing our presence around the world, whether it’s service centers, regional support offices, or parts depots. As well as our 24/7 customer response center, which ensures speedy response to parts needs and unscheduled maintenance, we have mobile response units — specially equipped trucks, and a Learjet 45 that carries parts around North America — to get to the customer’s airplane as quickly as possible. For us, it’s all about designing beautiful jets while also providing an exceptional experience.

PR: Insofar as anyone can answer such a question, is Bombardier likely to sustain existing workforce levels and production rates at its facilities throughout 2016?

JCG: A year ago, faced with the evident softness of some emerging markets, we chose to realign Global-series production rates to avoid reaching a situation of overcapacity. We wanted to protect our brand and protect the residual values of the product. Of course, that reduction in production rates came with the difficult task of laying off some of our personnel. We made significant workforce announcements last year, and some further announcements earlier this year. At present, we have nothing further to announce.

PR: Last October, Bombardier was forced to streamline its business jet portfolio by canceling the Learjet 85 program. Separately, as we know, the Global 7000 entry into service has been delayed. Overall, do you predict a strong future for Bombardier Business Aircraft?

JCG: Yes, of course. When we launched the Learjet 85 in 2007, the entry-level and midsize segment of the industry was delivering around 200 airplanes a year. Last year, the industry delivered 40 airplanes in that segment. We’ve seen a complete collapse of that segment of the marketplace.

Learjet 85 in Flight.
Photo: Bombardier.

It was a difficult decision to cancel the Learjet 85, but it was a reflection of the state of the marketplace — and it allowed us to focus our efforts on the Global 7000. Last July, we announced a two-year delay on that program, and right now we’re tracking to plan. The first Global 7000 flight test vehicle (FTV) is progressing well in Toronto, FTV number 2 is just behind, and we’re starting to build FTV numbers 3 and 4. We’ve had very few cancellations for the product, and our customers are excited about receiving this aircraft.

PR: How would you characterize the ongoing market divergence between large-cabin bizjets and, let’s say, entry-level products?

JCG: What industry forecasters — including myself — have come to realize since the 2008–09 financial meltdown is that the light segment, which used to sell a large percentage of the airplanes in the industry, will struggle to get back to where it was before.

Business aviation started with light airplanes — but, because large airplanes are available today, buyers will often choose a larger airplane from the get-go. The traditional view of the industry — that you went from a light to a medium to a large airplane — was a view aligned with the times, where larger airplanes were becoming available and the business aircraft owner population migrated up. Today, it’s a different dynamic.

Bombardier Global 5000.
Photo: Bombardier.

PR: That has echoes in my next question. The Global 5000 and 6000 are still consistent sellers for Bombardier. Are you seeing signs that existing customers are migrating toward the upcoming Global 7000 and 8000?

JCG: Great question. Our strategy in the large aircraft portfolio is to offer four airplanes priced from the $45-million range to around $75 million. Our new flagship Global 7000 is an aircraft without compromise. It’s the only airplane with the aerodynamics necessary to enable a max speed of Mach 0.925 and also land at steep-approach airports such as LCY. From a performance and comfort perspective, Bombardier is achieving the perfect combination of features — you get a four-zone cabin, you get high speed, and you get low-speed capability, all in one package. We see people buying a Global 7000 as their first aircraft. And we’ve seen some of our own installed base wanting to go for this larger airplane.

PR: The Challenger 350 — like its predecessor, the 300 — has become a consistently strong seller for Bombardier in the super-midsize category. What characteristics appeal to customers?

Bombardier Challenger 350.
Photo: NBAA.

JCG: Last year, we delivered 68 Challenger 350s — twice as many as its closest competitor. It’s a perfect transcontinental airplane. You can take eight pax from New York to LA easily. The 350 provides a nice upgrade to the 300, with improved avionics, a new cabin, and upgraded engines, as well as aerodynamic improvements including redesigned winglets. Since deliveries started in June 2014, market response has been amazing. We’ll deliver the 600th Challenger 300-series aircraft this year.

PR: Deliveries of the Challenger 650 — successor to the 605 — are now under way. Is the type being well received by customers?

Bombardier Challenger 350.
Photo: Bombardier.

JCG: They love the airplane. It’s a workhorse — and it’s a great upgrade to the Challenger 600-series platform. The 650 has a brand new interior, upgraded avionics, and upgraded engines. The Challenger 600 series is the poster child for reliability and operating economics. Its 4000-nm range means it can fly direct between, say, the Eastern Seaboard of the US and Europe.

PR: Are you satisfied with the health of the Learjet 70/75 order book? Is Bombardier considering any model enhancements?

JCG: The Learjet 70/75 is truly the best Learjet ever built. It sells as a premium aircraft in the light category, and it comes with a state-of-the-art cockpit, the most comfortable cabin, and the legendary performance of a Learjet.

PR: And possible enhancements?

JCG: That’s the magic question. We’re always innovating. We have a few new things to announce on that product at upcoming shows.

Après l’analyse financière des résultats financiers de Bombardier pour l’année 2015, il est intéressant de regarder de plus près le détail de l’évolution des chiffres des livraisons et des prises de commandes entre 2014 et 2015.

Bombardier Challenger 650.
Photo: Bombardier.

De 2014 à 2015, Bombardier Aéronautique a connu une baisse de livraisons de ses jets d’affaires et de ses avions de transport régional. Les premières sont passées de 204 à 199, une baisse de 5 unités causée par le repli important des livraisons de Challenger 650 et surtout de Global 5000 et Global 6000 que la hausse élevée de celles des Challenger 350 n’a pu compenser. Les deuxièmes ont glissé de 84 à 73 aéronefs car la hausse de livraisons des Q400, 4 unités, n’a pu endiguer la baisse des CRJ700, 2 unités, mais surtout celle des CRJ900, 10 unités.

Bombardier Challenger 350.
Photo: Bombardier.

Ce qui pose le plus problème est la baisse marquée des carnets de commandes et, par conséquent, des commandes nettes des jets d’affaires et des avions de transport régional de Bombardier. Les commandes nettes des jets d’affaires ont reculé de 2014 à 2015 passant de 129 à -24 et celles des avions de transport régional de 153 à 51.

Source : Bombardier.

Sur le marché des avions de transport régional, les livraisons de Bombardier ont décru de 2014 à 2015, soit 84 contre 73 alors que celles de son concurrent brésilien, Embraer, se sont hissées de 92 à 101 aéronefs.

Bombardier CRJ100 NextGen.
Photo: Bombardier.

De plus, durant les dernières deux années, Bombardier a livré moins d’appareils que son rival de Sao José dos Campos alors que l’écart s’est creusé.

Bombardier Q400 NextGen.
Photo: Bombardier.

De surcroit, alors que le carnet de commandes du constructeur de Dorval a décru de 2014 à 2015, glissant de 140 à 118, celui de son sempiternel concurrent a fortement progressé passant de 459 à 513 aéronefs.

Source : Bombardier, Embraer.

Sur le créneau des avions d’affaires, les affaires ne sont guère plus reluisantes mais à la décharge de Bombardier car l’avionneur montréalais n’est pas le seul à traverser une zone de turbulence.

Il faut dire que les chiffres de la General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) de Washington pour 2015, publiées jeudi parce que devant attendre la divulgation des résultats financiers de 2015 de Bombardier, révèlent un léger repli du secteur durement frappé depuis la chute de Lehman Brothers en octobre 2008.

Ainsi Bombardier Avion d’affaires a vu ses livraisons, en terme d’unités et en valeur, régresser passant respectivement de 204 à 199 aéronefs et de 7,564 milliards de dollars américains à 7,360 milliards. Gulfstream Aerospace conforte sa première place avec 4 livraisons supplémentaires et des ventes en hausse de 423 millions de dollars américains à 8,204 milliards. Embraer Executive Jets a vu ses livraisons et son chiffre d’affaires augmenter respectivement de 4 jets et de 159 millions de dollars américains.

Néanmoins, Bombardier peut se consoler car d’une part, Textron Aviation qui regroupe Cessna et Beechcraft et d’autre part, Dassault Falcon ont vu leur livraison et chiffres d’affaires reculer. Dans le cas, du constructeur de Mérignac, les annulations ont fait chuter ses livraisons à 55 Falcon, un recul de 11 unités et son chiffre d’affaires de 52% passant de 2,715 milliards de dollars américains à 1,287 milliard.

Dassault Falcon 8X.
Photo: Dassault Aviation.

Bombardier Avions d’affaires et Dassault Aviation ont subi les effets de la crise qui touche les pays du BRIC (Brésil, Russie, Inde et Chine), grands amateurs de jets d’affaires à large cabine et long et très long rayon d’action comme les Global 5000 et Global 6000 de Bombardier et les Falcon 7X de Dassault.

La vigueur des marchés nord-américains et ouest-européens ont sauvé Bombardier Avions d’affaires par une hausse conséquente de 25,9% des livraisons du biréacté SuperMid Size Challenger 350, prisé sur ces deux marchés.

Source : GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

De toutes évidences, le recul des livraisons et des prises de commandes des jets d’affaires et des avions de transport régional de Bombardier deviennent source de préoccupations.

Gulfstream G650.
Photo: Gulfstream Aerospace.

Les retards des Global 7000 et Global 8000 n’aideront pas Bombardier face aux G650 de Gulfstream en service en décembre 2012 et aux G650ER à la fin 2014 ainsi qu’aux Falcon 8X dont l’entrée en service devrait survenir au quatrième trimestre 2016.

Bombardier Aéronautique, Avions d’affaires ne doit pas perdre de vue un rajeunissement des Global 5000 et Global 6000 pour ne pas dire une remotorisation avec le GE Passport des Global 7000 et Global 8000 et une refonte complète du Challenger 650 ce qui signifie le lancement d’un jet entièrement nouveau conçu autour d’un moteur lui aussi tout nouveau.

Embraer E195-E2.
Photo: Embraer.

Coté Avions régionaux, une remotorisation des CRJ700/CRJ900/CRJ1000 serait sérieusement à considérer en raison des succès de la famille Embraer E-Jet E2, une version dotée d’une nouvelle aile et de nouveaux moteurs Pratt & Whitney Pure Power PW1700G et PW1900G des E-Jet en service depuis 2004. Les premiers membres de la famille E-Jet E2 devraient entrer en service en 2018.