Business Aircraft Market Analysis & Forecast.

 

 

August 9, 2016

 

The global business aircraft market remains dynamic with substantial opportunities (and pitfalls) for suppliers and customers. Aircraft variants and their associated engines vie for success in a difficult marketplace characterized by demanding customers and, in some segments, serious overcapacity.

Teal Group’s Business Aircraft Briefing takes a comprehensive view of the market. First, we look at the market and where it is headed. Second is our assessment of the manufacturers and new product development prospects. Third is our forecast, including assumptions and segment details. Finally, there’s our quantitative market forecast, which covers all turbofan and turboprop business aircraft, and the associated engines. Key findings include:

• Business aircraft were hit harder by the economic downturn than any other aerospace market. After record growth in 2003-2008, the market fell by 29% (in value of deliveries) between 2008 market peak and 2012.
• The market’s 2008-2012 decline was typical of a cyclical down­turn. Yet these topline numbers understate the pain felt by a large part of this industry. The top half of the market (jets costing $26 million and above)actually grew through the 2008-2012 downturn, with deliveries rising by 0.3%. The bottom half (jets costing $4-26 million) fell by a catastrophic 56%. The market has never seen bifurcation like this in any previous downturn or growth period.
• The market drop last year reflects weakness in the top half of the market. The bottom half actually grew last year. This represents an unwelcome form of market con­vergence.
• Our forecast calls for another drop of 5.3% this year, driven down by top half weakness. This in turn has been driven by low oil prices and weak emerging mar­kets. Right now, given macroeco­nomic and geopolitical uncer­tainty, we think it’s best to main­tain a conservative outlook. Our forecast calls for just modest, sin­gle-digit growth through 2019, with a faster (but still historically modest) growth rate in the next decade.

 If you would like more information, please go to our website (tealgroup.com ) or contact your sales representative listed below.Â

 

Eastern Region (USA)/Canada	Doug Cornell	(703) 573-5374	dcornell@tealgroup.com
Mid Western Region (USA)	David Conklin	(513) 247-9350	dconklin@tealgroup.com
Western Region (USA)/Pacific	Pravin Parmar	(562) 434-7159	pparmar@tealgroup.com
Europe/Middle East	Monika Cornell	(703) 573-0559	mcornell@tealgroup.com

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